Guru's Golden Picks: AFL Week 4

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You play... to win... the game
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Nice job GoBucks... reading my mind thoroughly with my first picks. I like the card this weekend folks. Lots of units to be won.

San Jose (-8) @ Los Angeles (4 units -105): I got this line the second it opened at -6.5, which is a GREAT number to have it at, but for record keeping purposes, 8 will be my number. Anything up to about 12.5 is good in my estimation. The Saberkitties have run into a rough stretch of games of late with the roadies to Tampa and New Orleans (and one with Orlando in three weeks!). This time their travels take them to Los Angeles, to face one of the worst teams in the AFL, despite their record. The records help us out a bit in this game, as San Jose is a game back in the West to both LV and LA... This division is turned quite upside down! LA is 2-1 ATS and San Jose is 1-2, but look for the Saberkitties to rip apart LA from the beginning in this one. The Sabercats are back at full strength with Hundon and Thomas back in the lineup, which should lead to an all around great game by the Sabercats, who need to get back in the win column badly.

Philadelphia @ New Orleans over 101 (3 units -105): Got this at 99 when it opened, but still a solid number. Vegas finally learns that New Orleans is a shoot out team after last week's debacle with San Jose. Philly wants to do the same. Andy Kelly is already looking at the prospects of being named offensive player of the year, and in the Graveyard, look for another game in the 110-120 range. Anything up to about 105.5 maybe 106 is still a good number to bet.

Orlando @ Dallas Under 98.5 (3 units -105): Here's what I'm going to say about this game.... DO NOT, and I repeat, DO NOT take Orlando. This is a MEGA trap game for the Preds. The high scoring game last week for the Preds is a very good omen for under in this one. We probably bought ourselves a free 4 points on this one because of it. HOWEVER... Dallas 35 - Columbus 31. Need I say more? Dallas' offense is really overrated after dropping 66 on Chicago, a very solid defense in week one. However, you can't prepare for this Orlando defense... They're too solid. Joe Hamilton is still making some poor decisions, which will surely end some drives. Both teams take in a lot of penalties, which will take several minutes off of this game. Anything over 93 or so is still good value.

7.5 point teaser: San Jose -1 / Chicago -3 (3 units -110): I liked this a bit better when I got Chicago -2 and San Jose -0.5, but it's still good. Regarding this Chicago game... CHAD SALISBURY faces his former team... Raymond Philyaw looks REAL good after that first quarter against Colorado. Etu Molden is still a beast for the Rush. Columbus simply isn't very good. I'm worried about a bit of a letdown in this game for the Rush after the close one with Colorado, but I think in the end, the class of teams will triumph... maybe not covering the full bit, but the Rush should have no problem winning this game. We saw how bad Columbus' offense was this past weekend once again, and I don't see it getting much better for the Destroyers. This Chicago team is much better than the Dallas team that Columbus just faced.

Slightly more information coming as I find some stats. Best of luck.

--AFLGuru:toast:
 

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Glad we are thinking alike Mr. Guru! There is money to be made on early Tuesday afternoon! Keep up the good work- your input is much appreciated!:103631605
 

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Please note, we're still missing the line for the Colorado/Arizona game on Saturday. May have another play off of that game.

--AFLGuru
 

Last night I drank enough to kill a small Asian fa
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DO NOT BET AGAINST CHAD SALISBURY!!!! MARK MY WORDS!!!! Chicago is not as good of a play as you think. Columbus might even win the game outright.
 

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More on the New Orleans/Philly game...

Note that the number is now 106, which is on the cusp of solid.

Both New Orleans and Philly only take in 7.3 penalties a game, which is a relatively low number by AFL standards. This keeps the clock moving to a minimum. Having watched Philly, Tony Graziani runs a no huddle offense which also conserves time. New Orleans, with the exception of one drive in the 3rd quarter, took over 4 shots at over 20 yards per quarter against San Jose. Look for a lot of the same. Philly may be without the services of Crespina, who might getting suspended after punching a ref on Sunday. If this is the case, New Orleans will be looking at no one in the Philly secondary, who got torched by Nashville after Crespina got ejected. Especially if New Orleans gets ahead in this game, which is what I expect to happen, Philly will probably start sneaking around with onsiders in the 2nd half, leading to quick VooDoo scores. This game is another one of those that screams the possibility of 140 combined. But for reasonability's sake, I'll say I expect both team to reach the upper 50s in this one, and the winner to need 60 to win.

Get your best line... I'll offer more teaser options later in the week because these lines have inflated so much again.
--AFLGuru:toast:
 

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Okay BrownsFan... I'll give you all the props in the world if Columbus wins the game, but if they lose and Chicago covers them, you need to drop the title "Platinum Picks"... because platinum insinuates better than gold...
 

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OK, if Columbus gets covered then I'll drop the name Platinum Picks. However, if Columbus covers Chicago you have to drop your name Golden Picks. In favor of Guru's Bronze Medal Picks. Deal?
 

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I'm never dropping my Golden Picks unless my number goes below 0... I'm sure people would rather see your picks go than my picks go. Remember, I'm not on the Rush. I'm not convinced they are going to cover the game. I'm convinced Chicago is covering the teaser. I hope Columbus does cover the game... If they do, that's one less time they're probably going to cover later on in the season.
 

You play... to win... the game
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And clearly Bud is being a *******... I can't believe he's not drunk right now the way he's acting.
 

Last night I drank enough to kill a small Asian fa
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well ur the one that wanted to bet AFL GURU, lets bet big boy
 

You play... to win... the game
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Look, BrownsFan, just go away... Keep your thread to yourself and continue trying to model yourself after me. I'm not betting the rights to my title, which is something that I already believe I claimed. And if you really believe what Bud's saying, you're an idiot. Go away.

--AFLGuru:toast:
 

Last night I drank enough to kill a small Asian fa
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AFL, you are the one who called me out. Let's just see who has the better record this weekend and leave it at that.
 

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Agree Guru. This forum is to help each other by supplying information to help each other win. Let your picks and information speak for themselves. You should also read the General's post at the top of this forum as to how we should interact with each other. The more opinions the better, but once posts revert to namecalling and chest pounding, its hard to sort through the crap to find the information that may help each player to win. Peace!
 

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I've already emailed the moderators and asked them to take this crap off of my thread.

--AFLGuru:toast:
 

You play... to win... the game
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Look, Browns fan, my record is proven. No one knows a thing about you and your capping skills. That being said, no one's gonna give a damn if you have a better record than me for one week. Do it over longer period of time than a week and then come back and talk to me.

Best of luck.
--AFLGuru:toast:
 

Last night I drank enough to kill a small Asian fa
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I refuse to resort to this AFL, let's just agree to disagree, I agree with gobucks, let's just stop this childish stuff. Good luck to you this week!!
 

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